Type II error

By Jude Wallis · Published

A Type II error is failing to reject a false null hypothesis: a false negative, missing a real effect that is actually present.

A Type II error needs two things at once: H0H_0 is false, and the test fails to reject it. Its probability is β\beta (beta), and like power it is defined against one specific alternative value. There is no single β\beta for a test, only a β\beta for each value the parameter might really have.

Use the z test the power visualizer runs: H0:μ=100H_0: \mu = 100 against Ha:μ>100H_a: \mu > 100, with σ\sigma (sigma) known to be 15 and n=25n = 25, so the standard error is 3 and the α=0.05\alpha = 0.05 cutoff sits at 104.93. If the truth is μ=105\mu = 105, the sample mean falls short of that cutoff with probability 0.4913. That is β\beta, and the matching power is 10.4913=0.50871 - 0.4913 = 0.5087. Move the truth out to 110 and β\beta drops to 0.0457 with nothing about the test changed.

The sentence to stop writing: "the p-value was 0.31, so there is a 31 percent chance I made a Type II error." A p-value is computed assuming H0H_0 is true, and under a true H0H_0 a Type II error cannot happen at all. β\beta is never read off the data. It is a property of the test pointed at an alternative value you do not get to see.

Only one of the two errors is available on any given test, because H0H_0 is either true or false. If H0H_0 is true there is no β\beta to speak of and the only mistake on the table is a Type I error. Note also that α\alpha and β\beta are not complements: here they are 0.05 and 0.4913, which add to nothing meaningful.

Say which lever you are pulling. Holding α\alpha, the true effect, and the spread fixed, more data shrinks β\beta: raising nn from 25 to 100 takes it from 0.4913 to 0.0457. Raising α\alpha shrinks it too, at the price of more false alarms, since α=0.10\alpha = 0.10 puts β\beta at 0.3501 in the same test. AP Statistics treats both errors in topic 3.8, Potential Errors When Performing Tests.

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