Type II error
By Jude Wallis · Published
A Type II error is failing to reject a false null hypothesis: a false negative, missing a real effect that is actually present.
A Type II error needs two things at once: is false, and the test fails to reject it. Its probability is (beta), and like power it is defined against one specific alternative value. There is no single for a test, only a for each value the parameter might really have.
Use the z test the power visualizer runs: against , with (sigma) known to be 15 and , so the standard error is 3 and the cutoff sits at 104.93. If the truth is , the sample mean falls short of that cutoff with probability 0.4913. That is , and the matching power is . Move the truth out to 110 and drops to 0.0457 with nothing about the test changed.
The sentence to stop writing: "the p-value was 0.31, so there is a 31 percent chance I made a Type II error." A p-value is computed assuming is true, and under a true a Type II error cannot happen at all. is never read off the data. It is a property of the test pointed at an alternative value you do not get to see.
Only one of the two errors is available on any given test, because is either true or false. If is true there is no to speak of and the only mistake on the table is a Type I error. Note also that and are not complements: here they are 0.05 and 0.4913, which add to nothing meaningful.
Say which lever you are pulling. Holding , the true effect, and the spread fixed, more data shrinks : raising from 25 to 100 takes it from 0.4913 to 0.0457. Raising shrinks it too, at the price of more false alarms, since puts at 0.3501 in the same test. AP Statistics treats both errors in topic 3.8, Potential Errors When Performing Tests.
Where this comes up
- Type I vs Type II Error and Statistical PowerGuide
- Power vs Type II error (power = 1 - beta)Comparison
- Type I and Type II Error Practice ProblemsPractice
- AP Stats 3.8: Type I and Type II ErrorsAP topic
- How to Choose a Significance Level (Alpha)Guide
- Justifying claims: confidence interval practicePractice
- AP Statistics Bell Ringers: 30 Five-Minute IdeasGuide
- AP Statistics pacing guide: 32 weeks, unit by unitGuide
9 pages on the site use this term.
More hypothesis testing terms, or browse the full statistics glossary.