Power
By Jude Wallis · Published
Power is the probability that a test rejects the null hypothesis when one specific alternative value is the truth, equal to 1 minus the Type II error rate.
Power is (beta), where is the probability of a Type II error, and both numbers are computed while assuming one specific alternative value is the truth. A test therefore does not have a power. It has one power for every value the parameter could take, and a power quoted without naming that value is not a number anyone can use.
Take the z test behind the site's power visualizer: against , with (sigma) known to be 15 and , so the standard error is . At the test rejects once (x-bar) clears . If the true mean is 105, sample means center at 105 with that same standard error of 3, and the chance of clearing 104.93 is 0.5087. That is the power against , near a coin flip.
The misreading to kill: "power is 0.5087, so there is about a 51 percent chance the null hypothesis is false." Power says nothing about whether is false. It assumes a stated alternative is already true and reports how often the test would notice. It is also not the probability that this particular conclusion is correct, since it is a long-run rate for a procedure aimed at one alternative.
Two boundaries are worth holding. Against , where the null is true, power equals exactly, 0.0500, because the only rejections left are Type I errors. And power can sit below : this one-sided test looks upward only, so against a true mean of 95 its power is 0.0005.
Name the lever before claiming a tradeoff. Raising from 25 to 100 takes power against from 0.5087 to 0.9543 and leaves at 0.05. Raising from 0.05 to 0.10 takes power to 0.6499 and doubles the Type I error rate in the same move. AP Statistics covers power in topic 3.8, Potential Errors When Performing Tests.
Where this comes up
More hypothesis testing terms, or browse the full statistics glossary.