Type I error

By Jude Wallis · Published

A Type I error is rejecting a true null hypothesis: a false positive, concluding there is an effect when in fact there is none.

A Type I error requires two conditions at once: H0H_0 is true, and the test rejects it anyway. Its long-run rate under a true null is exactly the significance level α\alpha (alpha) you chose, which makes it the one error probability you set directly rather than inherit.

Take H0:μ=100H_0: \mu = 100 against Ha:μ>100H_a: \mu > 100, with σ\sigma (sigma) known to be 15 and n=25n = 25, so the standard error is 3 and an α=0.05\alpha = 0.05 test rejects once xˉ\bar{x} (x-bar) clears 104.93. If the true mean really is 100, that happens in 5 percent of samples. Those 5 percent are Type I errors, and there is nothing wrong with the data or the arithmetic in any of them: the sample was unlucky, not mistaken. Drop α\alpha to 0.01 and the cutoff moves to 106.98, so the rate falls to 1 percent.

The sentence to retire: "my p-value was 0.03, so there is a 3 percent chance this rejection is a Type I error." Once the decision is made, either H0H_0 is true and you erred or it is false and you did not; the coin has already landed. α\alpha describes the procedure across many repetitions, not the single conclusion in front of you, and 0.03 is the p-value, computed under a null that may well be false.

The error is also unavailable when H0H_0 is false, no matter how badly the test performs. Rejecting a false null is the correct decision, and failing to reject it is a Type II error. Which of the two mistakes you could even make depends on a truth you never observe.

Lowering α\alpha cuts this error and, with nn and the true effect held fixed, raises the other: at α=0.01\alpha = 0.01 the test above has β=0.7453\beta = 0.7453 against a true mean of 105, where α=0.05\alpha = 0.05 gave 0.4913. A larger sample cuts both at once. Which error costs more is a judgment about consequences, and AP Statistics topic 3.8, Potential Errors When Performing Tests, asks for that judgment in context.

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