Type I error
By Jude Wallis · Published
A Type I error is rejecting a true null hypothesis: a false positive, concluding there is an effect when in fact there is none.
A Type I error requires two conditions at once: is true, and the test rejects it anyway. Its long-run rate under a true null is exactly the significance level (alpha) you chose, which makes it the one error probability you set directly rather than inherit.
Take against , with (sigma) known to be 15 and , so the standard error is 3 and an test rejects once (x-bar) clears 104.93. If the true mean really is 100, that happens in 5 percent of samples. Those 5 percent are Type I errors, and there is nothing wrong with the data or the arithmetic in any of them: the sample was unlucky, not mistaken. Drop to 0.01 and the cutoff moves to 106.98, so the rate falls to 1 percent.
The sentence to retire: "my p-value was 0.03, so there is a 3 percent chance this rejection is a Type I error." Once the decision is made, either is true and you erred or it is false and you did not; the coin has already landed. describes the procedure across many repetitions, not the single conclusion in front of you, and 0.03 is the p-value, computed under a null that may well be false.
The error is also unavailable when is false, no matter how badly the test performs. Rejecting a false null is the correct decision, and failing to reject it is a Type II error. Which of the two mistakes you could even make depends on a truth you never observe.
Lowering cuts this error and, with and the true effect held fixed, raises the other: at the test above has against a true mean of 105, where gave 0.4913. A larger sample cuts both at once. Which error costs more is a judgment about consequences, and AP Statistics topic 3.8, Potential Errors When Performing Tests, asks for that judgment in context.
Where this comes up
- Type I vs Type II Error and Statistical PowerGuide
- How to Choose a Significance Level (Alpha)Guide
- AP Stats 3.8: Type I and Type II ErrorsAP topic
- P-value vs alpha (significance level)Comparison
- Type I and Type II Error Practice ProblemsPractice
- Proportion z-test practice problemsPractice
- How to write a hypothesis test conclusionGuide
- AP Statistics Bell Ringers: 30 Five-Minute IdeasGuide
11 pages on the site use this term.
More hypothesis testing terms, or browse the full statistics glossary.