Margin of error

The margin of error is how far a point estimate may reasonably sit from the true parameter; it equals the critical value times the standard error.

The margin of error sets the reach on each side of a point estimate in a confidence interval, so the interval is estimate±margin of error\text{estimate} \pm \text{margin of error}. It grows with the confidence level and shrinks as the sample size grows, since more data lower the standard error. For example, a poll reporting 47% with a 3% margin of error gives the interval 44% to 50%. In symbols, margin of error=zσn\text{margin of error} = z^* \cdot \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} for a mean with known population standard deviation σ\sigma, where zz^* is the critical value and nn the sample size.

More confidence intervals terms, or browse the full statistics glossary.