Margin of Error vs Confidence Level

Both terms below come up in the same part of the course, and students mix them up. Here is each one defined on its own, side by side, so you can see where they part company.

Margin of error

Confidence intervals

The margin of error is how far a point estimate may reasonably sit from the true parameter; it equals the critical value times the standard error.

The margin of error sets the reach on each side of a point estimate in a confidence interval, so the interval is estimate±margin of error\text{estimate} \pm \text{margin of error}. It grows with the confidence level and shrinks as the sample size grows, since more data lower the standard error. For example, a poll reporting 47% with a 3% margin of error gives the interval 44% to 50%. In symbols, margin of error=zσn\text{margin of error} = z^* \cdot \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} for a mean with known population standard deviation σ\sigma, where zz^* is the critical value and nn the sample size.

Full entry for margin of error

Confidence level

Confidence intervals

The confidence level is the long-run percentage of confidence intervals, built the same way from repeated samples, that would capture the true parameter.

The confidence level, often 90%, 95%, or 99%, describes the method rather than one specific interval. It says that if you repeated the sampling and interval-building many times, that percentage of the intervals would contain the true parameter. For example, at a 95% confidence level about 95 of every 100 such intervals would trap the real value and about 5 would miss it. A higher confidence level uses a larger critical value, which makes each interval wider.

Full entry for confidence level

Where each one fits in the course