Critical value

By Jude Wallis · Published

A critical value is a cutoff from a reference distribution, such as z or t, that sets a confidence interval's width or a test's rejection boundary.

A critical value is a quantile of a reference distribution, chosen so that a stated area falls beyond it. For a confidence interval at level CC it is the number zz^* (z-star) or tt^* (t-star) with the middle CC of the curve lying between z-z^* and zz^*. For a significance test it is the point cutting off α\alpha (alpha) in whichever tail the alternative hypothesis points to. One idea, two jobs: it sets a width, or it sets a boundary.

The standard normal values, listed in full on the z-table:

confidencezz^*
90%1.645
95%1.960
99%2.576

At 95%, 1.960 is the value leaving 0.025 in each tail, so 0.95 of the standard normal curve sits between 1.960-1.960 and 1.9601.960. With the population standard deviation unknown you switch to tt^* at the right degrees of freedom, and it is larger than the matching zz^* at every finite df. At 95% the t-table gives 2.262 at 9 df, 2.064 at 24 df, and 1.984 at 99 df, closing on 1.960 from above without reaching it.

The error worth naming is "the critical value for 95% confidence is 1.96." It is 1.96 only when the reference curve is the standard normal. A mean from a sample of 12 uses tt with 11 df, where the critical value is 2.201, and with a normal population, reaching out only 1.96 standard errors captures the true mean 92.4% of the time rather than 95%. The interval is about 11% too narrow and it undercovers by more than two points.

Not every critical value comes in a ±\pm pair. The chi-square distribution is right skewed and its tests use the upper tail alone, so there is a single cutoff: 7.815 at 3 degrees of freedom and α=0.05\alpha = 0.05, from the chi-square table. A critical value also marks only the boundary. How far past it you landed is what a p-value reports, which is why two tests can share a critical value and carry very different evidence.

Where this comes up

23 pages on the site use this term.

More confidence intervals terms, or browse the full statistics glossary.