Multiplication Rule vs General Multiplication Rule

Both terms below come up in the same part of the course, and students mix them up. Here is each one defined on its own, side by side, so you can see where they part company.

Multiplication rule (independent events)

Probability

The multiplication rule says the probability that two events both happen is the product of their probabilities, but only when the events are independent.

For independent events the rule is P(AB)=P(A)P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A)P(B), where \cap is the intersection symbol (A and B). Independence means learning that one event happened does not change the probability of the other, so the second factor never has to be adjusted. Flipping a fair coin and rolling a fair die are independent, so P(heads and a 6)=0.5×1/6=1/120.0833P(\text{heads and a 6}) = 0.5 \times 1/6 = 1/12 \approx 0.0833. If the events are not independent you must use the general multiplication rule with a conditional probability instead.

Full entry for multiplication rule

General multiplication rule

Probability

The general multiplication rule says P(A and B) equals P(A) times the conditional probability of B given A, and it holds for any two events.

The rule is P(AB)=P(A)P(BA)P(A \cap B) = P(A) \cdot P(B \mid A), where \cap is the intersection symbol (A and B) and P(BA)P(B \mid A) is read the probability of B given A. No independence is required, because the conditional factor already accounts for any way the first event shifts the second. Drawing two cards from a standard 52-card deck without replacement, P(two aces)=452351=12210.0045P(\text{two aces}) = \frac{4}{52} \cdot \frac{3}{51} = \frac{1}{221} \approx 0.0045. When the events happen to be independent, P(BA)=P(B)P(B \mid A) = P(B) and the rule collapses to the simple product.

Full entry for general multiplication rule

Where each one fits in the course