Independent events

By Jude Wallis · Published

Two events are independent when knowing whether one of them occurred does not change the probability of the other, in either direction.

Events AA and BB are independent when P(AB)=P(A)P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A)P(B). Provided P(B)>0P(B) > 0, that is the same as P(AB)=P(A)P(A \mid B) = P(A), read "the probability of A given B equals the probability of A", and the relation runs both ways: if BB tells you nothing about AA, then AA tells you nothing about BB. Independence is a numerical condition you check, not a verdict you reach from how the story sounds.

It does not require two separate physical actions. Roll one fair die, and let AA be "even", the set {2,4,6}\{2, 4, 6\}, and BB be "at least 5", the set {5,6}\{5, 6\}. Then P(A)=0.5P(A) = 0.5, P(B)=2/60.3333P(B) = 2/6 \approx 0.3333, and ABA \cap B is the single outcome 6, so P(AB)=1/60.1667P(A \cap B) = 1/6 \approx 0.1667. The product 0.5×1/3=1/60.5 \times 1/3 = 1/6 matches it, so two events on the very same roll are independent, and indeed P(AB)=(1/6)/(2/6)=0.5=P(A)P(A \mid B) = (1/6)/(2/6) = 0.5 = P(A). Widen BB to "at least 4" and it breaks: P(AB)=2/60.3333P(A \cap B) = 2/6 \approx 0.3333 against a product of 0.5×0.5=0.250.5 \times 0.5 = 0.25.

"The two events cannot both happen, so one cannot affect the other, so they are independent." That gets it exactly backwards. Mutually exclusive events with nonzero probabilities are never independent, because P(AB)=0P(A \cap B) = 0 while P(A)P(B)>0P(A)P(B) > 0, and those two cannot be equal. If AA and BB are disjoint, BB occurring forces AA not to occur, which is the strongest dependence available.

Selecting people without replacement destroys independence. In a class of 20 with 8 in band, picking two students at random gives P(second in bandfirst in band)=7/190.3684P(\text{second in band} \mid \text{first in band}) = 7/19 \approx 0.3684, not the 8/20=0.408/20 = 0.40 you started with, because the first pick shrinks the class. The ten percent condition is what lets such draws be treated as close enough to independent. Independence itself is topic 2.7.

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