Independent events
By Jude Wallis · Published
Two events are independent when knowing whether one of them occurred does not change the probability of the other, in either direction.
Events and are independent when . Provided , that is the same as , read "the probability of A given B equals the probability of A", and the relation runs both ways: if tells you nothing about , then tells you nothing about . Independence is a numerical condition you check, not a verdict you reach from how the story sounds.
It does not require two separate physical actions. Roll one fair die, and let be "even", the set , and be "at least 5", the set . Then , , and is the single outcome 6, so . The product matches it, so two events on the very same roll are independent, and indeed . Widen to "at least 4" and it breaks: against a product of .
"The two events cannot both happen, so one cannot affect the other, so they are independent." That gets it exactly backwards. Mutually exclusive events with nonzero probabilities are never independent, because while , and those two cannot be equal. If and are disjoint, occurring forces not to occur, which is the strongest dependence available.
Selecting people without replacement destroys independence. In a class of 20 with 8 in band, picking two students at random gives , not the you started with, because the first pick shrinks the class. The ten percent condition is what lets such draws be treated as close enough to independent. Independence itself is topic 2.7.
Where this comes up
More probability terms, or browse the full statistics glossary.