Conditional Probability vs Independent Events

Both terms below come up in the same part of the course, and students mix them up. Here is each one defined on its own, side by side, so you can see where they part company.

Conditional probability

Probability

Conditional probability is the probability that one event occurs given that another event has already occurred.

Conditional probability updates the chance of an event once you know another event has happened. It is written P(AB)=P(A and B)P(B)P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \text{ and } B)}{P(B)} (the probability of AA given BB), the probability of both divided by the probability of the given event. For example, if 40 percent of students take both Spanish and art and 50 percent take Spanish, then the chance of art given Spanish is 0.40/0.50=0.80.40 / 0.50 = 0.8. Restricting attention to BB is what given means.

Full entry for conditional probability

Independent events

Probability

Two events are independent when one occurring does not change the probability of the other.

Events are independent when knowing that one happened tells you nothing about the other, so P(AB)=P(A)P(A \mid B) = P(A) (the probability of AA given BB equals the probability of AA). For independent events the multiplication rule gives P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B)P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B). For example, two fair coin flips are independent, so the probability of two heads is 0.5×0.5=0.250.5 \times 0.5 = 0.25. Independence is about influence, not overlap, so do not confuse it with mutually exclusive.

Full entry for independent events

Where each one fits in the course