Conditional Probability vs Probability
Both terms below come up in the same part of the course, and students mix them up. Here is each one defined on its own, side by side, so you can see where they part company.
Conditional probability
Probability
Conditional probability is the probability that one event occurs given that another event has already occurred.
Conditional probability updates the chance of an event once you know another event has happened. It is written (the probability of given ), the probability of both divided by the probability of the given event. For example, if 40 percent of students take both Spanish and art and 50 percent take Spanish, then the chance of art given Spanish is . Restricting attention to is what given means.
Probability
Probability
Probability is a number from 0 to 1 measuring how likely an event is, with 0 meaning impossible and 1 meaning certain.
Probability measures the long-run relative frequency of an event over many repetitions. For equally likely outcomes, . For example, rolling an even number on a fair six-sided die has probability . Over many rolls the fraction of even results settles near this value, an idea called the law of large numbers.