Conditional Probability vs Probability

Both terms below come up in the same part of the course, and students mix them up. Here is each one defined on its own, side by side, so you can see where they part company.

Conditional probability

Probability

Conditional probability is the probability that one event occurs given that another event has already occurred.

Conditional probability updates the chance of an event once you know another event has happened. It is written P(AB)=P(A and B)P(B)P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \text{ and } B)}{P(B)} (the probability of AA given BB), the probability of both divided by the probability of the given event. For example, if 40 percent of students take both Spanish and art and 50 percent take Spanish, then the chance of art given Spanish is 0.40/0.50=0.80.40 / 0.50 = 0.8. Restricting attention to BB is what given means.

Full entry for conditional probability

Probability

Probability

Probability is a number from 0 to 1 measuring how likely an event is, with 0 meaning impossible and 1 meaning certain.

Probability measures the long-run relative frequency of an event over many repetitions. For equally likely outcomes, P(A)=number of outcomes in Atotal number of outcomesP(A) = \frac{\text{number of outcomes in } A}{\text{total number of outcomes}}. For example, rolling an even number on a fair six-sided die has probability 3/6=0.53/6 = 0.5. Over many rolls the fraction of even results settles near this value, an idea called the law of large numbers.

Full entry for probability

Where each one fits in the course