Mutually exclusive events

By Jude Wallis · Published

Mutually exclusive events, also called disjoint events, cannot both occur on the same trial, so they share no outcomes and never happen together.

Two events AA and BB are mutually exclusive, or disjoint, when no outcome belongs to both, so P(AB)=0P(A \cap B) = 0 (\cap is the intersection sign, read "and"). Said with conditional probability, P(AB)=0P(A \mid B) = 0: once BB has happened, AA is off the table for that trial. The addition rule then loses its overlap term and becomes P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B), and the same plain sum extends to any collection of events that are disjoint in every pair.

Roll one fair die, with A={1,2}A = \{1, 2\} and B={5,6}B = \{5, 6\}. Each has probability 2/60.33332/6 \approx 0.3333, no outcome is in both, so P(AB)=0P(A \cap B) = 0 and P(AB)=0.3333+0.3333=0.6667P(A \cup B) = 0.3333 + 0.3333 = 0.6667.

"A and B cannot happen together, so neither one affects the other, so they are independent." Put numbers on that same pair. Independence demands P(AB)=P(A)P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A)P(B), and here P(A)P(B)=(1/3)(1/3)=1/90.1111P(A)P(B) = (1/3)(1/3) = 1/9 \approx 0.1111 while P(AB)=0P(A \cap B) = 0. The two are not equal, so the events are dependent, and about as dependent as events get: learning that BB occurred drops the probability of AA from 1/31/3 to 0. In general, if P(A)>0P(A) > 0 and P(B)>0P(B) > 0 and the events are mutually exclusive, then P(AB)=0P(A)P(B)P(A \cap B) = 0 \ne P(A)P(B), so they cannot be independent. Disjoint is the opposite of unrelated, not a version of it.

The condition that both probabilities exceed 0 is doing real work. Let BB be "the die shows a 7", so P(B)=0P(B) = 0. Then P(AB)=0P(A \cap B) = 0 and P(A)P(B)=0P(A)P(B) = 0 as well, which makes AA and BB disjoint and independent at the same time. That degenerate case is the only escape, which is why the rule is always stated with both probabilities above zero.

Justifying that two events are mutually exclusive from their joint probability is the whole of topic 2.5.

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