At Least One Probability vs Complement

Both terms below come up in the same part of the course, and students mix them up. Here is each one defined on its own, side by side, so you can see where they part company.

At least one probability

Probability

The probability of at least one success is 1 minus the probability of no successes, which is far quicker than adding up every separate case.

At least one and none are complements, so P(at least one)=1P(none)P(\text{at least one}) = 1 - P(\text{none}) and you only ever compute one product. Roll a fair six-sided die 4 times: the chance of no 6 on a single roll is 5/65/6, and because the rolls are independent the chance of no 6 on all four is (5/6)4=625/12960.4823(5/6)^4 = 625/1296 \approx 0.4823. So the probability of at least one 6 is 10.4823=0.51771 - 0.4823 = 0.5177. The power step needs the trials to be independent with the same success probability on each one.

Full entry for at least one probability

Complement

Probability

The complement of an event is the event that it does not occur, containing every outcome outside it.

The complement of an event AA, written AcA^c (read A complement), collects all outcomes in the sample space where AA does not happen. Its probability is P(Ac)=1P(A)P(A^c) = 1 - P(A), since an event and its complement together cover everything. For example, if the probability of rain is 0.3, the probability of no rain is 10.3=0.71 - 0.3 = 0.7. The complement rule is handy when at least one is easier to compute as 1 minus none.

Full entry for complement

Where each one fits in the course