Significance level

By Jude Wallis · Published

The significance level, alpha, is the threshold a p-value is compared to, set before testing as the accepted probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis.

α\alpha (alpha) does two jobs with one number. It is the cutoff the p-value is compared against, and it is the probability the test rejects H0H_0 when H0H_0 is true. Those coincide because the rejection region is built to hold exactly that much area under the null distribution, which is also why α\alpha has to be chosen before the data arrive.

Take H0:μ=100H_0: \mu = 100 against Ha:μ>100H_a: \mu > 100, with σ\sigma (sigma) known to be 15 and n=25n = 25, so the standard error is 3. Setting α=0.05\alpha = 0.05 puts the cutoff at 100+1.645(3)=104.93100 + 1.645(3) = 104.93: if the true mean really is 100, 5 percent of samples of 25 land above 104.93 through nothing but sampling variability. Set α=0.01\alpha = 0.01 instead and the cutoff moves out to 106.98.

The misreading is subtle and common: "I test at α=0.05\alpha = 0.05, so 5 percent of the results I call significant are wrong." It is not 5 percent of your rejections. It is 5 percent of the tests you run on null hypotheses that happen to be true. What fraction of your significant findings are false alarms depends on how often the nulls you test are true in the first place, and α\alpha carries no information about that.

A fixed threshold also does not make 0.049 and 0.051 different evidence. They sit either side of an agreed line, nothing more, which is why the p-value gets reported alongside the decision rather than swallowed by it.

Say which lever you mean. Holding nn, the true effect, and the spread fixed, lowering α\alpha lowers power: in the test above, α\alpha of 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01 gives power 0.6499, 0.5087, and 0.2547 against a true mean of 105. That is a trade between the two error rates, not a law binding power to α\alpha, because raising nn from 25 to 100 lifts power to 0.9543 with α\alpha still 0.05. AP Statistics covers the errors this threshold governs in topic 3.8, Potential Errors When Performing Tests.

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