Sampling Error vs Bias of an Estimator

Both terms below come up in the same part of the course, and students mix them up. Here is each one defined on its own, side by side, so you can see where they part company.

Sampling error

Sampling distributions

Sampling error is the ordinary sample-to-sample variation between a statistic and the parameter it estimates. It is not a mistake anyone made.

Sampling error is not an error in the everyday sense, and the name is what trips students up. Even a flawless simple random sample produces a statistic that misses the parameter, purely because a different random sample would have landed somewhere else. If the true population proportion is p=0.50p = 0.50 and one random sample of 100 gives p^=0.46\hat{p} = 0.46 (p-hat, the sample proportion), the sampling error for that sample is 0.460.50=0.040.46 - 0.50 = -0.04. Sampling error shrinks as nn grows, but errors from bad methods, such as undercoverage or nonresponse, are non-sampling errors and a bigger sample will not touch them.

Full entry for sampling error

Bias of an estimator

Sampling distributions

Bias is systematic error in where an estimator's sampling distribution is centered, so the estimator is off target on average.

Bias is about the center of a sampling distribution, not its spread: an estimator is biased when its average value across all samples sits above or below the true parameter. The sample mean is unbiased because E(xˉ)=μE(\bar{x}) = \mu (the expected value of x-bar equals mu, the population mean), so it is right on average even though any one sample misses. The range of a sample, by contrast, is biased low, since a sample rarely contains both the population minimum and the population maximum. Collecting more data does not remove bias that comes from how the sample was chosen.

Full entry for bias of an estimator

Where each one fits in the course