Cumulative Distribution vs Probability Distribution

Both terms below come up in the same part of the course, and students mix them up. Here is each one defined on its own, side by side, so you can see where they part company.

Cumulative distribution

Random variables and distributions

A cumulative distribution gives the probability that a random variable is at most a given value, adding probabilities from the smallest value upward.

A cumulative distribution is the function F(x)=P(Xx)F(x) = P(X \le x), read as the probability that XX is at most xx. For a discrete variable it is a running total, F(x)=xixP(xi)F(x) = \sum_{x_i \le x} P(x_i), built by adding from the smallest value upward. It sits at 0 below the smallest value, never decreases, and finishes at 1.

Let XX be the number of heads in five flips of a fair coin. The individual probabilities for 0 through 5 heads are 0.031250.03125, 0.156250.15625, 0.31250.3125, 0.31250.3125, 0.156250.15625 and 0.031250.03125. Stacking them gives F(0)=0.03125F(0) = 0.03125, F(1)=0.1875F(1) = 0.1875, F(2)=0.5F(2) = 0.5, F(3)=0.8125F(3) = 0.8125, F(4)=0.96875F(4) = 0.96875 and F(5)=1F(5) = 1.

"At least 3 heads, so the answer is 1F(3)1 - F(3)" is the error, and it costs more marks here than any arithmetic mistake. That expression equals 10.8125=0.18751 - 0.8125 = 0.1875, which is the probability of more than 3. At least 3 includes 3 itself, so it is 1F(2)=10.5=0.51 - F(2) = 1 - 0.5 = 0.5, and the two answers are not close. Subtract the cumulative value one step below the lowest count you want to keep.

Run the table backwards and the jump in FF at a value is that value's own probability: P(X=3)=F(3)F(2)=0.81250.5=0.3125P(X = 3) = F(3) - F(2) = 0.8125 - 0.5 = 0.3125. That is why a cdf command answers at most and at least questions on its own while an exactly question needs the pdf command or that subtraction.

A continuous variable has no jumps to subtract. Its FF climbs smoothly, every single value contributes nothing to the climb, and the same subtraction returns 0 wherever you try it, which is the cumulative view of why probability there lives on intervals. Topic 2.8 of Unit 2, Introduction to Random Variables and Probability Distributions, builds the discrete version alongside the ordinary distribution.

For a continuous variable the cumulative function is an accumulation function in the calculus sense, built by integrating the density from the left. Differentiating it returns the density, which is the first Fundamental Theorem of Calculus, and that theorem needs the density to be continuous for exactly the reason the discrete case behaves differently here: accumulating something that jumps gives a corner, not a derivative.

Full entry for cumulative distribution

Probability distribution

Random variables and distributions

A probability distribution is the rule assigning probability to the values of a random variable, with the probabilities over all values totalling 1.

A probability distribution says how the total probability of 1 is divided among the values a random variable can take. For a discrete variable it is a table or a formula giving P(X=x)P(X = x) for every possible xx, and two conditions define it: each probability satisfies 0P(X=x)10 \le P(X = x) \le 1, and P(X=x)=1\sum P(X = x) = 1. For a continuous variable there is no table. Probability comes from area under a density curve, and the area under the whole curve is 1.

Let XX be the number of people in a car passing a checkpoint, with P(1)=0.35P(1) = 0.35, P(2)=0.30P(2) = 0.30, P(3)=0.20P(3) = 0.20, and the last probability left blank. The sum condition fills it in: P(4)=1(0.35+0.30+0.20)=0.15P(4) = 1 - (0.35 + 0.30 + 0.20) = 0.15. That is not a trick, it is the definition doing the work, and it is also why a table whose entries add to 0.97 is not a probability distribution at all.

The misreading to watch is "I rolled the die 60 times and got twelve 3s, so P(X=3)=0.20P(X = 3) = 0.20." That is a relative frequency from one sample, not the distribution. A probability distribution is what the chance process does over the long run and it is fixed before any data exist; a sample wobbles around it and settles closer as the number of trials grows.

The discrete and continuous cases part company over a single value. For the car table, P(X2)=0.65P(X \le 2) = 0.65 while P(X<2)=0.35P(X < 2) = 0.35, because X=2X = 2 carries real probability of its own. For a continuous variable, P(X=x)=0P(X = x) = 0 at every single xx, so P(X2)P(X \le 2) and P(X<2)P(X < 2) are equal. Reading a strict inequality as if it were the other kind is a genuine error for counts and harmless for measurements.

Probability distributions enter the course at topic 2.8, Introduction to Random Variables and Probability Distributions.

Full entry for probability distribution

Where each one fits in the course