Expected Value vs Probability Distribution

Both terms below come up in the same part of the course, and students mix them up. Here is each one defined on its own, side by side, so you can see where they part company.

Expected value

Random variables and distributions

The expected value of a random variable is its long-run average, found by multiplying each value by its probability and adding the products.

The expected value is the mean you would see over many repetitions of the random process, and it need not be a value the variable can actually take. For example, a game that pays 2 dollars with probability 0.5 and nothing with probability 0.5 has expected value 2(0.5)+0(0.5)=12(0.5) + 0(0.5) = 1 dollar. In general it is written E(X)=μX=xipiE(X) = \mu_X = \sum x_i \, p_i (E of X, the mean of X, sums each value times its probability). It is the balance point of the probability distribution.

Full entry for expected value

Probability distribution

Random variables and distributions

A probability distribution lists every value a random variable can take along with the probability of each value or range of values.

A probability distribution shows how the total probability of 11 is shared among a random variable's possible values. For example, rolling a fair six-sided die gives each value from 1 to 6 a probability of 16\frac{1}{6}. For a discrete variable the probabilities must satisfy 0pi10 \le p_i \le 1 and pi=1\sum p_i = 1 (each probability is between 0 and 1, and they add to 1). Continuous variables use a density curve instead, where probability is the area under the curve.

Full entry for probability distribution

Where each one fits in the course