Slope of a regression line

By Jude Wallis · Published

The slope of a regression line is the predicted change in the response variable for each one-unit increase in the explanatory variable.

In y^=a+bx\hat{y} = a + bx the slope bb is the change in the predicted response for a one-unit increase in the explanatory variable. The word predicted is load-bearing: bb describes how the line moves, not what happens to any individual. The slope also carries units, always units of yy per unit of xx, so a bare number is an incomplete answer.

Six students study 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 hours and score 60, 72, 65, 78, 71 and 86. The least-squares line is y^=58+4x\hat{y} = 58 + 4x, and b=4b = 4 points per hour. Said in context: for each additional hour of study, the model predicts a score about 4 points higher. It comes from b=rsysxb = r \cdot \frac{s_y}{s_x}, here 0.8107×9.23041.87080.8107 \times \frac{9.2304}{1.8708}, which is why bb and the correlation rr always share a sign but rarely share a size.

The interpretation that loses credit is "each extra hour of study raises a student's score by 4 points." It makes two claims the line cannot support. Raises is causal, and these are observational data where a student who studies more may differ in other ways. And it promises 4 points to an individual, while the six real students sit as much as 7 points off the line. Predicted change, not guaranteed change.

The slope is not symmetric in the two variables, which surprises people. Regress hours on score instead of score on hours and the slope is 0.1643 hours per point, not the reciprocal 1/4=0.251/4 = 0.25. The two slopes multiply to 4×0.1643=0.6574 \times 0.1643 = 0.657, which is r2r^2. The correlation, by contrast, is 0.8107 whichever variable you call explanatory. Rescaling changes the slope too: measure study time in minutes and bb becomes 4/604/60 points per minute while rr does not budge.

Where this comes up

More regression and correlation terms, or browse the full statistics glossary.