Normal approximation to the binomial

The normal approximation to the binomial models a binomial count with a normal curve of mean np and standard deviation the square root of np(1-p).

When nn is large, the stair-step shape of a binomial distribution smooths out into a normal curve with mean μ=np\mu = np and standard deviation σ=np(1p)\sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} (mu and sigma). The usual check is that npnp and n(1p)n(1-p) are both at least 10, the same Large Counts idea that sits behind inference for proportions. With n=100n = 100 and p=0.4p = 0.4, np=40np = 40 and n(1p)=60n(1-p) = 60 both clear 10, so the count is roughly normal with mean 4040 and standard deviation 244.899\sqrt{24} \approx 4.899, putting about 95% of counts within 1.961.96 standard deviations of the mean, between 30.430.4 and 49.649.6. Calculators return exact binomial probabilities now, so this approximation matters most as the reason p^\hat{p} (p-hat, the sample proportion) has a normal sampling distribution.

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