Unbiased Estimator vs Point Estimate

Both terms below come up in the same part of the course, and students mix them up. Here is each one defined on its own, side by side, so you can see where they part company.

Unbiased estimator

Sampling distributions

An unbiased estimator is a statistic whose average value across all samples equals the true parameter, so it has no systematic tendency to be too high or low.

An estimator is unbiased when its sampling distribution is centered on the parameter it estimates, though any single estimate still varies around that center. For example, the sample mean is unbiased for the population mean because E(xˉ)=μE(\bar{x}) = \mu (the expected value of x-bar equals mu). Likewise the sample proportion is unbiased for the population proportion, since E(p^)=pE(\hat{p}) = p (the expected value of p-hat equals p). Bias concerns where the sampling distribution is centered, not how spread out it is.

Full entry for unbiased estimator

Point estimate

Sampling distributions

A point estimate is a single number computed from sample data and used as the best guess for an unknown population parameter.

A point estimate is your one-number summary of a parameter before you attach any margin of uncertainty. Common ones are the sample mean xˉ\bar{x} (read x-bar) for the population mean μ\mu (the Greek letter mu), and the sample proportion p^\hat{p} (read p-hat) for the population proportion pp. For example, if 63 of 200 sampled voters approve, the point estimate of the population approval rate is p^=63/200=0.315\hat{p} = 63/200 = 0.315. A point estimate alone hides sampling variability, so it is usually paired with a margin of error to form a confidence interval.

Full entry for point estimate

Where each one fits in the course