t-distribution

By Jude Wallis · Published

The t-distribution is a symmetric, bell-shaped curve with heavier tails than the normal, used for inference about a mean when the population SD is unknown.

The tt-distribution is not one curve but a family, indexed by the degrees of freedom. It is the distribution of t=xˉμs/nt = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu}{s / \sqrt{n}} (x-bar minus mu, over s divided by root n) when the data come from a normal population. Swapping the fixed σ\sigma (sigma) for the sample standard deviation ss, which itself changes from sample to sample, is what puts the extra weight in the tails. Every member is symmetric about 0, and the family closes on the standard normal as the degrees of freedom grow.

The numbers make that convergence concrete. For a 95 percent interval the t-table gives t=2.145t^* = 2.145 at 14 degrees of freedom, 2.0422.042 at 30, 1.9841.984 at 100 and 1.9621.962 at 1000, against z=1.960z^* = 1.960 for the normal. The gap is 8.6 percent of the critical value at 14 degrees of freedom and about 0.1 percent at 1000.

"The sample is small so use tt, and large so use zz" is the wrong rule, and it is the one most students carry in. The trigger is whether σ\sigma is known, not how big nn is. With 500 observations and a standard deviation estimated from them, the correct model is tt on 499 degrees of freedom, which happens to sit very close to the normal. Knowing σ\sigma with n=8n = 8 would put you back on zz.

The heavier tails change verdicts, not just widths. A statistic of 2.00 read on tt with 14 degrees of freedom has a two-sided p-value of 0.0653, against the 0.0455 the normal returns for the same 2.00, so at α=0.05\alpha = 0.05 one model rejects and the other does not.

Those tails cover the uncertainty in ss and nothing else. They do not repair a skewed population or a stray outlier, which is why a tt procedure still asks you to look at the shape of the sample first. The tt-distribution enters the course at topic 4.2 of Unit 4, Inference for Quantitative Data: Means.

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