Predicted value (y-hat)

The predicted value y-hat is the response a regression model gives for a chosen x, found by substituting that x into the equation of the line.

The predicted value is the height of the regression line above a chosen xx, not a value anyone observed. You get it by substituting: with y^=12+3x\hat{y} = 12 + 3x (read y-hat), an xx of 4 gives y^=12+3(4)=24\hat{y} = 12 + 3(4) = 24. If the individual with x=4x = 4 actually had y=26y = 26, the residual is 2624=226 - 24 = 2, so the model underpredicted by 2. Predicted values stay trustworthy only inside the range of xx used to fit the line; outside that range you are extrapolating.

Where this comes up

More regression and correlation terms, or browse the full statistics glossary.