Least-squares criterion

The least-squares criterion picks the line that makes the sum of the squared residuals as small as possible.

Out of every line you could draw through a scatterplot, the least-squares criterion keeps the one that minimizes (yy^)2\sum (y - \hat{y})^2, the total squared vertical miss, where y^\hat{y} is read y-hat. Squaring makes large misses count heavily and stops positive and negative residuals from cancelling, since the residuals of this line always add to 0. For example, if the least-squares line for three points leaves residuals 3, -1, and -2, it scores 32+(1)2+(2)2=9+1+4=143^2 + (-1)^2 + (-2)^2 = 9 + 1 + 4 = 14, and no other line scores lower on those three points. One consequence worth remembering: the least-squares line always passes through (xˉ,yˉ)(\bar{x}, \bar{y}), the point of averages, read x-bar and y-bar.

More regression and correlation terms, or browse the full statistics glossary.